📊 Indian Market Daily | 09 April 2026

Indian Market
Daily Brief

Relief rally takes hold — Hormuz ceasefire sparks crude crash, rupee rebound, and broad-based surge; FII outflows remain the shadow on the feast.

Nifty 50 23,930 ▲ +3.49%

Bank Nifty 54,500 ▲ +3.38%

Brent Crude $94.22 ▼ −13.8%

WTI Crude $94.25 ▼ −16.6%

USD/INR ₹92.45 ▼ −0.42%

DXY 98.76 ▼ −1.02%

US 10Y 4.15% ▼ −18 bps

India 10Y 7.00% ▼ −10 bps

CBOE VIX 20.68 ▼ −19.8%

GIFT Nifty 24,117 ▲ +0.83%

🌐 Macro Pulse

Global Indicators

Indicator	Value	Chg	Implication
🛢 Brent	$94.22	▼ −13.8%	Ceasefire triggers biggest crude drop since 2020; CAD relief
⛽ WTI	$94.25	▼ −16.6%	War premium unwinding; supply restoration hopes dominate
💱 USD/INR	₹92.45	▲ Rupee +0.42%	Rupee snaps multi-week weakness; import costs ease
💵 DXY	98.76	▼ −1.02%	4-week low; inflation fear trade evaporating
🇺🇸 US 10Y	4.15%	▼ −18 bps	Treasuries rallying; energy-driven inflation risk receding
🇮🇳 IN 10Y	7.00%	▼ −10 bps	Off multi-year highs; RBI rate-hike fear fading with crude
📐 Spread	285 bps	▼ −8 bps	Mild compression; still FII-supportive at current levels
😨 VIX	20.68	▼ −19.8%	Fear rapidly unwinding; still in elevated zone (17–21)

Crude — 10-Day Trajectory (Brent $/bbl)

10Y Yield Spread — US vs India (%)

FII / DII Activity (₹ Crore)

FII MTD −₹35,121 Cr

DII MTD +₹30,448 Cr

India VIX — Fear Gauge

18.5

India VIX (est.)

<13 Calm 13–17 Normal 17–21 ← NOW >21 Fear

🛢 Crude & INR

Brent’s 14% crash is the single most positive macro event for India in months — the Current Account Deficit widens by roughly $9–10 billion for every $10 move up in crude, so today’s reversal structurally improves India’s external balance. OMCs benefit from inventory gains and margin expansion; aviation sees dual relief from lower ATF and AERA’s concurrent 25% landing-charge cut. The rupee recovering from near-94 to ₹92.45 reduces import-cost inflation and eases pressure on RBI FX reserves.

📈 Yields & FII

The US–India spread at 285 bps remains theoretically attractive for carry trades, but FIIs have been sellers for most of April — the MTD tally of −₹35,121 Cr signals structural caution about India’s valuations and geopolitical overhang. With the RBI’s April 8 MPC holding rates at 5.25% (neutral tone), the bond market is pricing out aggressive tightening; this is mildly positive for private-bank NIMs. Friday’s US March CPI could reset the entire FII calculus if it prints soft.

😨 VIX Reading — ELEVATED (17–21)

CBOE VIX at 20.68 is in the elevated band — fear is fading rapidly but has not normalised. India VIX is estimated near 18–19, consistent with cautious rather than panic-driven markets. Traders watch a sustained move below 17 on India VIX as confirmation that the risk-on impulse has genuine legs rather than being a headline-driven spike.

📈 Nifty 50 — Technicals

LTP (Apr 8 close) 23,930 ▲ +806 pts (+3.49%)

Trend Recovery Cautiously Bullish

20 EMA 23,140 ▲ Price Above

Candle Pattern Marubozu Bullish · Long White

Fibonacci Levels — Nifty 50 (₹26,373 → ₹21,500)

LTP ₹23,930

₹21,500
0% Low 0.382 0.5 0.618 0.786 ₹26,373
100% High

🔴 R2 ₹25,330 0.786 Fib

🔴 R1 ₹24,512 0.618 Fib

⚡ LTP ₹23,930 ~0.5 Fib

🟢 S1 ₹23,362 0.382 Fib

🟢 S2 ₹22,650 0.236 Fib

Setup — Gap-Up Continuation Watch
Entry zone ₹23,900–₹24,050 · Invalidation ₹23,200 · T1 ₹24,512 · T2 ₹25,330 · R:R ~2.5:1
Price may find buyers on dips to the 0.382–0.5 Fib zone; a close above ₹24,512 could attract momentum participants.

Nifty 50 — 15-Day Price Chart (Estimated Daily OHLC)

Key Fib Levels: ━ 0.236 ₹22,650 ━ 0.382 ₹23,362 ━ 0.5 ₹23,937 ━ 0.618 ₹24,512

🏦 Bank Nifty — Technicals

LTP (Apr 8 close) 54,500 ▲ +1,784 pts (+3.38%)

Trend Sideways Testing 0.618 Fib

20 EMA 52,300 ▲ Price Above

Candle Pattern Engulfing Bullish · Sentiment Flip

Fibonacci Levels — Bank Nifty (₹57,000 → ₹48,000)

LTP ₹54,500

₹48,000
Low 0.236 0.382 0.5 0.618 ₹57,000
High

🔴 R2 ₹56,432 0.786 Fib

🔴 R1 ₹54,681 0.618 Fib

⚡ LTP ₹54,500 ~0.618 Fib

🟢 S1 ₹51,247 0.382 Fib

🟢 S2 ₹50,006 0.236 Fib

Setup — 0.618 Fib Breakout Watch
Entry zone ₹54,200–₹54,700 · Invalidation ₹52,800 · T1 ₹56,000 · T2 ₹57,500 · R:R ~2.2:1
RBI neutral stance removes an immediate upside rate risk; private-bank NIM outlook stabilises.

Bank Nifty — 15-Day Price Chart (Estimated)

🔍 Top 5 Active Stocks

01 · IT SECTOR

WIPRO

NSE: WIPRO

₹316

▲ +3.71% today

Cup & Handle · Breakout

52W Range ₹248 – ₹342

Volume 3.2× 20-DMA

0.618 Fib ₹306 (below)

Bull >₹318 → ₹362

Bear <₹305 → ₹284

02 · IT SECTOR

TCS

NSE: TCS

₹3,855

▲ +2.81% today

Rising Channel · Recovery

52W Range ₹3,310 – ₹4,180

Volume 2.8× 20-DMA

0.618 Fib ₹3,848 (near)

Bull >₹3,870 → ₹4,180

Bear <₹3,740 → ₹3,642

03 · AVIATION

INDIGO

NSE: INDIGO

₹5,160

▲ Dual catalyst surge

Gap-Up · Dual Catalyst

52W Range ₹3,820 – ₹5,580

Volume 4.5× 20-DMA

Catalyst AERA −25% charges

Bull >₹5,050 → ₹5,838

Bear <₹4,950 → ₹4,700

04 · OIL & GAS / OMC

BPCL

NSE: BPCL

₹355

▲ Inventory gain play

OMC Re-rating · Crude Crash

52W Range ₹268 – ₹398

Volume 3.9× 20-DMA

0.618 Fib ₹348 (above)

Bull >₹355 → ₹398

Bear <₹333 → ₹317

05 · DIVERSIFIED

RELIANCE

NSE: RELIANCE

₹1,422

▲ Channel test

Desc. Channel · Breakout Test

52W Range ₹1,182 – ₹1,562

Volume 2.5× 20-DMA

0.618 Fib ₹1,417 (above)

Bull >₹1,445 → ₹1,562

Bear <₹1,372 → ₹1,327

Sector Performance — Apr 8 2026 (Estimated %)

🗓️ Events to Watch

Time IST	Event	Impact	What to Watch
09:15 AM	Nifty Weekly F&O Expiry (Apr series)	HIGH	Max-pain pin risk around ₹24,000; gamma effects could suppress volatility in morning session before a directional push in final hour.
All Day	Hormuz Monitoring — Iran Compliance Window Day 2	HIGH	Any protocol breach or reversal of ceasefire could re-spike crude and erase entire April 8 rally. Physical reopening confirmation — not just diplomacy — is what oil traders price for.
10:00 AM	RBI MPC Follow-through	MED	Governor’s post-April 8 commentary still being digested; bond market to settle around 7.00% if RBI signals accommodation on inflation.
06:00 PM	US PPI — March Preliminary	MED	Ahead of Friday CPI; a hot PPI reading could dent global risk appetite and reverse the yield rally. Cold print = EM tailwind.
Fri 10 Apr 06:00 PM	🔑 US CPI — March 2026	HIGH	Key test for Fed pricing — a soft print could unlock FII re-entry into EMs; a hot print risks reversing the entire ceasefire-driven rally. Consensus: 3.5% YoY.

🎯 Day’s Verdict

The ceasefire-driven crude crash has handed India a macro gift — lower CAD, a firmer rupee, and OMC/aviation relief all arriving simultaneously. The GIFT Nifty at 24,117 points to a gap-up open, and the weight of evidence leans bullish for today’s session. However, this is also a weekly Nifty expiry day, which introduces pin-risk dynamics and can produce sharp intraday reversals after the initial euphoria.

Key Level to Watch

₹24,512

Nifty · 0.618 Fib

A sustained hourly close above this level would shift near-term structure from “relief rally” to “trend reversal.” Failure to hold would likely see profit-booking toward ₹23,362–₹23,200.

Stay disciplined · Follow the levels · Let price confirm

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This report is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or stock recommendations. All price data is sourced from publicly available sources (TradingEconomics, NSE, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Reuters) as of 08–09 April 2026; intraday and index close figures are estimates pending official NSE settlement. Fibonacci levels are technical analysis tools and not trade recommendations. Traders should conduct their own due diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Content is purely educational.

Indian Market Daily | 09 April 2026- Relief rally takes hold