AXISCADES Technologies
Q3 FY2025 Stock Analysis & Future Growth Outlook
Latest Results Highlights (Q3 FY2025)
Revenue Growth
₹274 Cr
+18.4% YoYEBITDA
₹40 Cr
+36.9% YoYProfit After Tax
₹14.8 Cr
+96% YoYOrder Book
710 Croe
~₹710 Cr as of Dec 31, 2024- Core Business Contribution: Aerospace, Defense & ESAI generated 99% EBITDA and 72% of revenue
- Defense Segment Growth: +88% YoY, EBITDA margin at 18%
- Aerospace Growth: +11% YoY, EBITDA margin at 24%
- EBITDA margin expanded to 14.6%
- PAT margin at 5.3%
- Debt Reduction: Finance costs down 39.7% YoY, net debt at ₹35.5 Cr
Key Metrics & Valuation
Market Cap
₹3,806 Cr
Current Price
₹892
Stock P/E
70.9
Book Value
₹143
ROCE
13.8%
ROE
7.11%
Debt
₹255 Cr
Reserves
₹586 Cr
Sales Growth (3Yrs)
22.2%
Profit Growth (3Yrs)
2.64%
Promoter Holding
59.6%
Pledged %
17.6%
Growth Plans & CAPEX Strategy
- Core Focus Areas: Aerospace, Defense, ESAI (Electronics, Semiconductor & AI)
- Planned CAPEX: ₹180 Cr for expansion (includes radar integration, manufacturing, AI-based MRO)
-
New Facilities:
- Electronic City (40,000 sq ft) – UAVs & defense tech
- Aero Land (180,000 sq ft) – AI-based MRO & aerospace innovation
- Devanahalli Atmanirbhar Cluster (DAC) – ₹500 Cr+ investment for advanced aerospace & semiconductor facility
- ESAI Expansion: Moving towards post-silicon tech, AI-driven solutions, & micro data centers
- Revenue Target: 50%+ CAGR growth in core business over next 2 years
Future Financial Projections
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | EBITDA Margin (%) | PAT (₹ Cr) | Projected Price (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1,100+ | 18% | 40-50 | ₹1,200-₹1,500 |
| 2030 | 2,500+ | 22% | 150-200 | ₹3,000+ |
| 2035 | 5,000+ | 25% | 500+ | ₹7,500+ |
| 2040 | 10,000+ | 30% | 1,000+ | ₹15,000+ |
Bull & Bear Case
- Strong defense & aerospace contracts, high-margin AI & semiconductor growth
- EBITDA margin expansion from 14.6% to 22%+
- CAPEX in AI-based MRO & supply chain management unlocks new revenue streams
- Delayed execution of defense & aerospace contracts
- Inorganic growth hurdles & intense competition
- Valuation concerns (P/E 70.9) if earnings fail to scale
Investment Thesis & Valuation Estimate
Valuation: Given the strong growth in core verticals & order pipeline, AXISCADES is expected to re-rate in 2-3 years. With 50% EBITDA growth target & strong defense contracts, a P/E compression from 70.9 to ~30-35 is likely, supporting a ₹1,200-₹1,500 stock price by 2026.
Long-Term Vision: Targeting $1 billion revenue & 35% EBITDA margin by 2030, driven by AI, semiconductors & aerospace innovation.
Conclusion: AXISCADES is positioned for high growth, but valuations are stretched. Investors should track execution on defense & AI business before aggressive entry.
Disclaimer: This report is not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
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